Trump Gives Brazil’s Bolsonaro a Boost
The American Conservative · R · trust 19/100
The administration has sought to influence elections in Latin America.
Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player... Brazilians cast their votes Sunday in the first round of an election that the polls predicted would be very close. It was, though the polls failed to predict which candidate would take first place. Flávio Bolsonaro, the right-wing son of the previous president, Jair Bolsonaro, beat the incumbent left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by 2 points, 47 to 45 percent. Since Bolsonaro failed to secure an outright majority, a runoff will be held on October 25.
Da Silva said , “I confess I was convinced I would win the election in the first round.”
There are several reasons for Bolsonaro’s unexpectedly strong performance. But one of them is the Trump administration’s role. It would not be the first time the U.S. has interfered in a Brazilian election, or even be the second.
In 1964, the U.S. cooperated in the coup that removed João Goulart from power, beginning a military dictatorship that would govern Brazil for the next two decades. The evidence that Washington cooperated in the coup is well documented. President Lyndon B. Johnson said he was “prepared to do everything that we need to do” to assist.
Years later, when Dilma Rousseff was removed in a coup whose leading players were allies of the American government, the U.S. implicitly recognized the new coup government by welcoming one of its key representatives to Washington.
Lula, Brazilian intelligence , and a small group of U.S. senators have all accused the Trump administration of interfering in Brazil’s current election as well. The three Democratic senators—Jeanne Shaheen, Peter Welch and Tim Kaine— accused the Trump administration of “an effort to interfere with, and potentially undermine, Brazil's general election.”
That interference has taken many forms, including tariffs on Brazil. Flávio’s brother, Eduardo, had lobbied hard for those tariffs . The tariffs were not just about rebalancing trade. When Trump informed da Silva of the levies, the first two justifications he provided were “Brazil’s insidious attacks on free elections, and the fundamental Free Speech Rights of Americans.” The tariffs were clearly meant to help the Bolsonaros, who are Trump allies, and hamper da Silva, who has been a vocal critic of the Trump administration’s foreign policy. Mark Weisbrot, a Latin America expert and codirector of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, told The American Conservative that Trump made it clear that Brazilians would suffer “tariffs and other punishments if they do not elect Bolsonaro.” The threat was a repeat of Trump’s strategy of interference in the recent elections in Honduras .
Flávio also successfully lobbied Trump to classify two Brazilian crime groups as terrorist organizations. The move was seen as a setback for da Silva, who opposed the classification, and a boost for Flávio Bolsonaro. Trump’s declaration that da Silva is “weak on taking on drug gangs” can be seen as further evidence that the effort was intended to undercut support for the current Brazilian president.
This was not the only lobbying done by Bolsonaros. Flávio has visited Trump in the White House, and Eduardo has met often with U.S. lawmakers.
Washington also tried to send State Department officials to Brazil “on a mission to cast doubt on the fairness and integrity of the country’s electoral system,” the Washington Post reported . The officials also planned to meet with Flávio Bolsonaro. Moreover, the Trump administration has directed funds to promote right-wing organizations including civil society groups in Brazil.
Weisbrot told TAC that “Bolsonaro has a media and social media advantage and a big money advantage,” and “Trump is playing a huge role because he so monopolizes the media.” This summer, as a Brazilian news outlet reported, the consulate in São Paulo invited anti-Lula influencers to participate in meetings on free speech.
And just two days before the election, the U.S. closed consular services in Brazil, citing security concerns. Da Silva has complained that the unusual move is meant to make the elections seem unstable.
It’s not clear to what extent Trump’s interference in the Brazilian election affected the results in the first round. But the fact that the Trump administration tried to influence the results is worth noting, if only to better understand its aims in the region.
Trump has demonstrated a pattern of interfering in Latin America’s presidential elections, in the last seven of which since the start of 2025 right-wing candidates have won. Trump has been less than reticent about the role he has played, boasting that Latin American politics features “lots of people that I got elected.” He has managed to help get “his people” into power in Colombia, Honduras , Argentina, Chile and Venezuela. Whether Bolsonaro in Brazil becomes the latest leader boosted into power by Trump remains to be seen.
Ted Snider is a contributing editor for The American Conservative . He is also a frequent contributor to Responsible Statecraft and other outlets.
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