A.I. Brings Big Gains to Hurricane Forecasts, Google Researchers Say
New York Times · LC · trust 49/100
Analysis by the company’s DeepMind unit suggests that an A.I.-enabled model delivers accurate forecasts a day or more before conventional models can.
Share full article Hurricane Melissa, which made landfall on Oct. 28, 2025, was the strongest known hurricane to ever strike Jamaica. Credit... CSU/CIRA/NOAA/Anadolu, via Getty Images By William J. Broad
Last fall, three days before Hurricane Melissa hit Jamaica, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami warned that the storm would strengthen rapidly from the least dangerous category to the deadliest. After that judgment turned out correct — among many accurate predictions the center was able to make during the unusually volatile storm — the forecasters attributed their success to artificial intelligence, which they incorporated earlier that year into their methodology.
Now, DeepMind, a Google unit that built the A.I. model, argues that the Melissa achievement was no fluke.
For a paper this month in Nature, Google DeepMind’s researchers analyzed hundreds of hurricane forecasts between 2023 and 2025. Their analysis demonstrates, they say, that their A.I. model can outdo other widely used prediction models by significant margins, effectively peering a day or more ahead of those other models.
“It’s a big deal,” said Amy McGovern, a professor of meteorology at the University of Oklahoma who directs an A.I. weather institute and played no role in the research. “If you can tell people a day in advance about a major hurricane, they’ll have more time to evacuate and prepare, in theory saving lives and property.”
Kerry Emanuel, an emeritus professor of atmospheric science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, welcomed the A.I. advance but cautioned that knowledgeable individuals still had to make sense of what the smart machines conjure up.
“It’s human beings who have to make these calls,” he said. Eventually, Dr. Emanuel added, “A.I. will be treated as just another form of guidance” along with satellite images and readings from hurricane hunter aircraft that pierce the tempests.
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