El-Sayed faces moment of truth in Michigan
The Hill · C · trust 42/100
Comments: by Amie Parnes - 08/06/26 6:00 AM ET Comments: Link copied by Amie Parnes - 08/06/26 6:00 AM ET Comments: Link copied NOW PLAYING Now comes the hard part for Abdul El-Sayed.
After winning Michigan’s bruising Senate primary , El Sayed, the progressive outsider, must use the energy that fueled his primary win, strategists say, to sway the voters who backed his chief rival Rep. Haley Stevens (D) and Mallory McMorrow, the Democratic state senator who dropped out of the race last month also received a share of Tuesday’s vote. El Sayed will also have to win over Black voters — a major demographic in the state — as well as working class and independent voters.
It won’t be easy. He’ll be faced with an onslaught of outside money and paid media — not to mention some residual ill-will from the primary.
“The biggest thing El-Sayed can do is make it clear Stevens supporters are welcome,” said Democratic strategist Steve Schale. “I think the ‘party’ will unify — whether El-Sayed can win the same margins with Black voters and independents. That’s another question.”
Or as Democratic strategist Rodell Mollineau put it: “When you’re running an anti-establishment campaign in an establishment state, its incumbent upon the winner to reach out because you’re going to need the same people that you’ve been s—ing on for the last six months to get you over the hump.”
On Tuesday, Democratic operatives on both ends of the spectrum sought to figure out what they could glean from Tuesday night’s primary and what it meant for a path to victory against Republican Mike Rogers in November.
Progressives and members of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) took the win — however small — to mean that they do in fact have the upper hand in the party. El-Sayed is not a member of the DSA, though there is some policy overlap. But moderates were skeptical and said the victory — by less than a percentage point — proved what they were saying all along: center-left candidates are better equipped to win decisive voting blocs in battleground elections.
Yet, the question all Democrats were asking on Wednesday was: Can El-Sayed win in November?
“Of course he can win because it’s a terrible year for Republicans and he’s a skilled candidate,” said Matt Bennett, the executive vice president for public affairs at Third Way, the moderate think tank. “But if he’s gonna win in a general election in a purple state, he’s got to drop his extremism.”
“What he can do is acknowledge that basically half the Democratic electorate rejected him,” Bennett said. “He underperformed pretty seriously with non-college voters, which is part of a pattern. That’s a big problem because our party is really struggling with non-college voters.
During his victory speech Wednesday, El-Sayed thanked Stevens and told her he looked “forward to uniting this fall.”
Bennett said to win over moderates and independents, most importantly, he had to stop focusing on hot-button issues such as Israel. Another Democratic strategist agreed with that sentiment: “Israel is an issue. It’s going to be very tough for some of the pro-Israel voters in the state to vote for him.”
“I don’t see how that changes,” the strategist said.
El-Sayed has long been critical of Israel and it’s government, characterizing its war in Gaza as “genocide.” Appearing on MS NOW’s “Morning Joe,” hours before he officially won the primary, El-Sayed didn’t appear to signal a shift in strategy. Instead, he continued his criticism of Israel, calling the country “bloodthirsty.”
To win in November, Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons, who has roots in Michigan, said the primary underscored that El-Sayed needs to perform better with Black voters too.
“He has real work to do in the African American community to ensure that they feel included in his vision for the state and the country,” Simmons said. “That will bolster his chances of winning in November.”
The primary results showcase some of El-Sayed’s vulnerabilities. Decision Desk HQ President Drew McCoy noted that Stevens performed better in the Wayne and Genesee Counties — which includes majority Black cities including Detroit and Flint. They also happen to be home to major manufacturing hubs within the state.
Meanwhile, McCoy noted that El-Sayed performed better in college-town areas like Kent, Washtenaw, and Ingham counties, which are home to University of Michigan and Michigan State University. Kent County is also notable because it’s another major manufacturing hub in the state. McCoy noted he performed well in rural areas as well.
El-Sayed’s challenge — one that’s not unique to him or any Democrat coming out of fierce primary — is how he will win over Stevens voters and keep Democratic enthusiasm high, McCoy added.
“How big is the overall universe that he’s drawing from? That is the challenge for him and any candidate in that position,” McCoy said.
But Republicans were quick to make the case that El-Sayed was the face of the current Democratic Party.
“The type of socialism and anti-semitism and anti-American vibe is no longer fringe Democrats from New York City and other urban centers,” said Brian Seitchik, the Republican strategist.
Seitchik said it will be relatively easy for Republicans to highlight El-Sayed’s “out of touch, fringe anti-America belief system” pointing to the rise of the DSA and other progressive candidates, including New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D).
“He and Mamdani are the heart and soul of the Democratic Party,” he said.
“Democrats have…
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