The Fed's Tough Mission
Reason · RC · trust 56/100
(Emily Alff - CNP/CNP / Polaris/Newscom) What will the new Fed chairman do? "Fed governor Christopher Waller said Monday that while inflation could still drift back toward 2% without further tightening, 'there is still a credible' chance that upcoming data shows inflation remains elevated or accelerates again," reports Axios . New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh testified before Congress yesterday, saying "the members of our committee have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation." He reassured lawmakers that they "share a resolute commitment to restoring price stability" but did not outline how.
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Another Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was released yesterday, ahead of the Fed meeting later this month. "The data showed that inflation in June cooled sharply as falling energy prices stemming from a temporary truce in the war with Iran dragged down the overall index," reports The New York Times. "' Core' inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy items to give a better sense of the underlying trend, also eased by more than expected."
"There might be some who look at today's data and say, 'Mission accomplished,'" said Warsh. "That is not my view."
That makes sense: If inflation has cooled in part due to falling energy prices, the resumption of fighting not just over the Strait of Hormuz but also early warning signs that the Gulf of Aden will possibly become a chokepoint for global oil are very big problems indeed. Warsh and co. should take this very seriously and not overextrapolate from the June CPI data, which does not reflect the current state of global affairs.
"Energy prices plunged on the Iran cease-fire and memorandum of understanding," Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist for BMO Capital Markets, told Reuters. "But with fighting back on in the Gulf, the MOU in tatters, and energy prices heading higher again in July, the balance of risks remains more heavily weighted toward a rate hike at some point this year."
Iran update: "We're going to hit them very hard tonight; we're going to hit them very hard tomorrow night; we're going to hit them very hard the night after," President Donald Trump told Fox News on Tuesday. "And then next week it gets really bad for them because next week comes the power plants. We're going to knock out all their bridges unless they get to the table and negotiate."
At 6 a.m. ET today, U.S. Central Command forces began launching a wave of strikes against Iran. The strikes are designed to further degrade military capabilities Iranian forces have used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 15, 2026
Scenes from New York: A website (called, succinctly, "damnlines") has been created to monitor the wait for various New York hotspots, per that Brock Colyar piece on lines in Curbed. You would think these buzzy froyo spots could simply jack up prices to respond to rising demand.
This is an amazing quote from Lindsey Graham about when he realized how politics works. https://t.co/sh04ahQOFq pic.twitter.com/bsoqfR1eK2
— nxthompson (@nxthompson) July 14, 2026
NEW: Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett details the chilling threats her family has faced, revealing the terrifying moment her 12-year-old son discovered a bulletproof vest in her bedroom during the fallout of the Dobbs leak.
Barrett also recounted a recent "swatting"... pic.twitter.com/Cn6yG0VTYO
— Fox News (@FoxNews) July 14, 2026
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