Lisa Demuth's Chances of Beating Klobuchar in Minnesota Governor Race
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0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth won Minnesota's Republican gubernatorial primary on Tuesday, advancing to a general election matchup against Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar as Republicans seek to regain control of the governor 's office.
Demuth, who did not receive the state’s GOP party endorsement earlier this year, clinched the nomination on Tuesday night. She campaigned on issues including public safety, tax policy and government accountability, and would make history as Minnesota's first female governor if elected in November.
Demuth's win is the latest primary related loss for President Donald Trump. Mike Lindell, one of Trump's most prominent allies and a longtime promoter of false claims about the 2020 election, entered the race with high name recognition and a devoted base of supporters. Trump endorsed him ahead of the race last month.
Demuth’s nomination comes eight years after she was first elected to the State House, where she has most recently served as the first Black lawmaker and Republican woman Speaker.
If elected in November, Demuth would become Minnesota's first Republican governor since Tim Pawlenty left office in 2011. However, forecasters favor Democrats in the statewide election, with both Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Cook Political Report rating the race as safe or solid for Democrats.
Newsweek has reached out to Lindell, Demuth, and Klobuchar’s campaigns for comment via email on Tuesday.
The Minnesota governor's race is one of 36 gubernatorial contests taking place nationwide this year, a cycle that includes several high-profile open-seat races in states such as Texas, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and Georgia.
It became an open contest after Democratic Governor Tim Walz, who ran for vice president in 2024, announced in January that he would not seek a third term in 2026. Democrat Klobuchar entered the race shortly after Walz’s announcement, leveraging her statewide name recognition after nearly two decades in the U.S. Senate. She secured the nomination with nearly 90 percent of the vote Tuesday night as of 11:40 p.m. ET.
The four-term senator quickly emerged as the party favorite and secured the endorsement of Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party at its state convention in May, with the nomination finalized tonight.
On Tuesday night, Demuth prevailed over several other Republican contenders, including MyPillow CEO Lindell and entrepreneur Kendall Qualls. Polling ahead of the primary generally showed Lindell with an advantage in the Republican field, although prediction markets like Kalshi showed his chances dropped off in the final days of the campaign, with Demuth leading.
While Qualls secured the Minnesota Republican Party’s endorsement earlier this year, Lindell entered the race with significantly higher national name recognition and a loyal base of supporters drawn to his outspoken support for Trump and election-related activism. His campaign, however, faced controversy, including questions over his residency status and allegations involving campaign activity. Lindell has denied the criticism.
Earlier this month, Lindell previously announced he's stepping down as CEO of MyPillow to devote his full attention to his gubernatorial campaign.
Ahead of polls closing on Tuesday, Trump wrote in a Truth Social post, “Mike Lindell deserves a BIG WIN IN MINNESOTA today. Nobody has worked harder, and given up so much, in fighting for free and fair Elections. Go out, NOW, and VOTE for Mike Lindell for Governor. He will not let you down.”
He previously endorsed him in a July Truth Social post, praising him as “one of America’s greatest and most hard working Patriots,” adding that “He truly loves Minnesota, as do I, and wants to bring it back from oblivion and embarrassment. He can do it! Nobody has sacrificed more than Mike Lindell in fighting for our country, especially when it comes to Election Integrity. He truly deserves everything he gets,” the president wrote.
Following the 2020 election, Lindell became one of the most outspoken advocates of claims that the election had been stolen from Trump. Courts repeatedly rejected legal challenges seeking to overturn the election results, and there is no evidence of widespread fraud that changed the outcome.
Few public polls have been conducted in the potential general election matchups. Those that have been released have generally shown Klobuchar with a significant advantage over Republican candidates , although the margin has tended to be narrower in surveys testing a Klobuchar-Demuth contest than in those featuring Lindell.
A Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. June poll found Demuth in the closest race against Klobuchar . In that matchup, 48 percent of respondents said they would back Klobuchar compared to 40 percent for Demuth.
Qualls trailed Klobuchar by 11 points with 37 percent compared to the Democratic senator’s 48 percent. Lindell, however, trailed by 17 points. He received 36 percent, while Klobuchar’s support rose to 53 percent.
It surveyed 800 likely voters from June 8-10, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. It was sponsored by the Minnesota Star Tribune, which reported its findings, KARE-TV and the University of Minnesota Hubbard School of Journalism and Mass Communication.
An Emerson College poll earlier this year had similar findings—Klobuchar led Lindell by 22 points with 53 percent compared to his 31 percent. She led Demuth by 13 points with 51 percent to the Republican’s 38 percent.
That poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters from February 6-8, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Democrats’ chances of holding onto the seat stood around 94 percent on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket as of Tuesday morning.
The dynamics of the…
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