Sand holds edge over Lahn in Iowa governor's race while Hinson leads Turek for Senate: Poll
The Hill · C · trust 59/100
Comments: by Julia Mueller - 09/03/26 6:00 AM ET Comments: Link copied by Julia Mueller - 09/03/26 6:00 AM ET Comments: Link copied NOW PLAYING Democratic state auditor Rob Sand is leading Republican businessman Zach Lahn in the tense Iowa governor’s race, new polling shows, while Democrat Josh Turek trails Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson in the wide-open Senate race.
A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media Iowa survey found Sand with 49 percent of voters in the gubernatorial race, compared to Lahn’s 46 percent, in their fight to succeed term-limited Gov. Kim Reynolds (R). Another 6 percent of voters were still undecided.
Though Republicans have long dominated the Iowa governor’s mansion, Sand stands out as the only Democrat currently holding statewide office in Iowa and has given his party a unique chance at the seat in a state that President Trump won in each of his three election cycles.
Trump, who had backed Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa) over Lahn in the Republican primary. He later endorsed Lahn.
In the race for retiring Sen. Joni Ernst’s (R) seat, Trump-backed Hinson pulled in 50 percent of the vote against Turek’s 45 percent, while 5 percent of voters were undecided. The results mark a 2-point increase for Hinson since August, while Turek’s support held steady in the same period.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, pointed out that about six percent of voters in the poll split their ticket to support both Hinson’s Republican Senate bid and Sand’s Democratic campaign for governor.
“Independent voters break for Sand over Lahn by a 12-point margin, 51 percent to 39 percent, while Turek leads Hinson by two among this group, 46 percent to 44 percent” Kimball said in a statement.
The tight Senate and gubernatorial races come as Trump’s approval rating rests 8 points underwater in the red state, with 44 percent of Iowans giving him a thumbs-up. At the same time, the score is higher than his national rating, which Decision Desk HQ’s averages put at roughly 18 points underwater.
Amid Iowa voter frustration over Trump’s economic moves and his support for the building of data centers, Cook Political Report last month shifted its rating of both races toward Democrats.
The governor’s race moved from a “toss-up” to “lean Democratic,” with the election handicapper citing Sand as “one of the strongest campaigns in the country this cycle.” The Senate race moved from “lean Republican” to “toss-up” amid a “uniquely challenging” political environment for the GOP.
Decision Desk HQ also considers the Senate race a toss-up, narrowly favoring the GOP. The governor’s race is also a toss-up, but Democrats are narrowly favored.
The survey was conducted Aug. 31-Sep. 1 among 750 voters and has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error, of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
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