Smaller Revision Points to More Accurate Jobs Numbers
New York Times · LC · trust 51/100
The 2026 revisions by the Bureau of Labor Statistics represent a downward adjustment of just 0.1 percent of the total work force.
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There were about 79,000 fewer employees on U.S. payrolls in March than previously believed, the agency said on Friday . That suggests that employers added about 16,000 jobs per month on average in the last three quarters of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, rather than the 23,000 jobs per month that had been indicated in monthly jobs reports.
The revisions are part of a longstanding annual process known as benchmarking — a procedure the government uses to reconcile monthly estimates, with more accurate but less timely data from state unemployment offices.
The updates used to get relatively little attention, but large downward revisions in 2024 and 2025 led some economists to question the reliability of the monthly estimates, which are based on surveys. Policymakers, including Jerome H. Powell, then the chair of the Federal Reserve, said last year that they believed the monthly reports were consistently overstating the amount of hiring, and that the labor market was weaker than the numbers suggested.
The revisions also became a political problem for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. President Trump cited the large 2024 revision when he fired the head of the agency, Erika McEntarfer, last summer, arguing without evidence that it showed she was biased against him. Economists across the ideological spectrum rejected that claim, noting that the agency made revisions in both directions under presidents of both political parties.
The 2026 revisions, however, are on track to be the smallest since 2021, representing a downward adjustment of just 0.1 percent of the total work force. That could help ease concerns that the government is struggling to measure the economy accurately.
After two years of large negative adjustments, this year's benchmark revision is set to be smaller.
Notes: Revisions to employment totals in March of each year. 2016 through 2025 reflect final benchmark revisions. 2026 figure is preliminary estimate.
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