Why Trump and the GOP's billion-dollar midterm blitz isn’t working
CNBC · C · trust 71/100
Livestream Menu Make It select USA INTL Livestream Search quotes, news & videos Livestream Watchlist SIGN IN Create free account Markets Business Investing Tech Politics & Policy Video Watchlist Investing Club PRO Livestream Menu
A billion-dollar war chest was meant to be Republicans' great equalizer heading into a bleak midterm election environment defined by economic frustration , President Donald Trump's unpopularity and fallout from the war in Iran .
From Labor Day through Oct. 14, GOP groups injected more than $740 million into congressional races that will determine control of Congress , according to a CNBC analysis of AdImpact data. That includes at least $220 million in spending from Trump-linked groups. Elon Musk has separately given another $276 million to Republican groups since July and helped boost the GOP's Senate Leadership Fund super PAC to a record quarter .
Yet with less than three weeks until the Nov. 3 Election Day, the spending blitz has barely moved the map. Democrats lead in FiftyPlusOne's polling averages across nine of the Senate's most competitive races — Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas — little changed from before the Republican spending spree. Minnesota was expected to be solidly blue, making its tight race a concern for Democrats.
And Republican political operatives and independent election observers CNBC spoke with say the money hasn't had the effects its magnitude would be expected to in voter sentiment.
Meanwhile, the broader battlefield continues to deteriorate for Republicans. Democrats are favored to flip the House and remain competitive in the Senate , according to the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter , forcing the GOP to burn millions protecting once-safe seats while abandoning former pickup targets.
"Money is an amplifier, not a magic wand," said Neil Newhouse , partner at Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies. "You can buy all the airtime in the world, but if the political climate is blowing 30 miles an hour in your face, ad volume alone isn't going to turn the weather around."
Republicans entered the final stretch of the midterm election with unusually deep pockets.
MAGA Inc. had nearly $416 million on hand at the end of August, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Across the broader ecosystem, major Republican organizations had roughly $1 billion available, eclipsing the $579 million available for comparable Democratic groups, according to a CNBC analysis of FEC filings.
Then came Musk — after saying he'd be less involved in this year's election. The Tesla and SpaceX CEO has given more than $276 million to Republican groups since July, including $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund Republican-boosting super PAC and more than $76 million to his own America PAC , according to figures confirmed to CNBC by an America PAC spokesperson. Musk's known federal political giving this election cycle now totals roughly $366 million, making him the largest known donor of the midterms.
And Musk is far from alone. Nine of the 10 largest individual and family donor groups this cycle are Republican-aligned, accounting for 86 cents of every dollar contributed by the top 10, according to a CNBC analysis of FEC records .
"We are watching an unprecedented concentration and scale of political influence and wealth this election cycle," said Hilary Braseth, executive director of OpenSecrets, a nonprofit, nonpartisan group that tracks campaign spending.
AdImpact projects $11.6 billion in political advertising this 2025-2026 cycle, surpassing both the 2022 midterms and the 2024 presidential election.
However, the size of Republicans’ financial advantage may overstate how much advertising that money can actually buy.
That's because much of the GOP's money, particularly spending by Trump-aligned groups, has arrived late and via super PACs, which can pay far more for airtime than candidates. Federal law entitles candidates to broadcasters' lowest unit rate during the final 60 days before a general election; outside groups get no such protection.
It's an edge for Democrats whose candidates have generally outraised their Republican counterparts.
In Dallas, for example, Democrat James Talarico's campaign spent about $2.4 million on local broadcast ads from Oct. 1 through Oct. 14, enough for the average viewer to see his ads about 48 times, according to a CNBC analysis of AdImpact data. The pro- Ken Paxton Texas PAC spent about $7.8 million for roughly 81 views per viewer — more than three times as much money for only about 70% more exposure, according to the analysis.
Airtime has become so expensive that Paxton's allies have begun buying ads during national sporting events, calculating that reaching enough Texans through a national broadcast can cost less than buying across the state's local television markets, according to the Associated Press .
"R money advantage not what it appears to be on [the] surface," Sen. John Cornyn , R-Texas, who lost to Paxton in the primary, posted on X on Oct. 5.
Across the nine key Senate battlegrounds identified by the Cook Political Report as of Oct. 1, Republicans led broadcast TV spending in seven and outspent Democrats by 26% overall through Sept. 30, yet generated only 7% more airings.
Super PACs don't face the same pricing disadvantage on digital ads, where campaigns and outside groups compete on more equal footing. But broadcast TV still dominates political spending, with AdImpact projecting it will account for 48% of the 2026 cycle total.
But the payoff from all that spending has been harder to see in political polls.
Despite more than $113 million spent on negative advertising targeting Talarico since the Texas primary, according to a CNBC analysis of AdImpact data, a Siena College poll released Tuesday showed Talarico leading Paxton 48% to 44%, down only slightly from his 6-point lead in September.
In…
Read the original at CNBC →
Open in TruthVane →