Maps Show US Forecast for Fall as El Niño Strengthens
Newsweek · C · trust 37/100
0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. El Niño is expected to reshape weather patterns across the United States this fall, bringing a mix of heavier rainfall, drought changes, warmer temperatures and varying risks of flooding and tornadoes, according to AccuWeather forecasts.
The outlet’s meteorologists say the fall outlook is being largely shaped by a strengthening El Niño , which can alter precipitation patterns and drought prospects across the U.S.
"When you have a strong El Niño , it changes the weather pattern across much of the country,” AccuWeather lead long-range expert Paul Pastelok said in an email sent to Newsweek on Monday. “Some areas become much wetter; others stay warmer than normal, and those shifts can have a big impact on flooding, drought, tropical activity, and even early-season snowfall."
One AccuWeather map shows a fall forecast with several regional departures from historical averages across the U.S.
Wetter-than-normal conditions are highlighted across much of the Southwest, including parts of California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah and New Mexico, while another broad zone of increased rainfall is shown from the western Gulf Coast through the lower Mississippi Valley and into the Southeast, including areas around Houston, Mobile and Atlanta.
In contrast, the Pacific Northwest is marked for less snow and rain, and a drier pattern is also forecast from parts of the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Warmer-than-average conditions are projected across a wide stretch of the northern Plains and upper Midwest, with another warm area shown along the Southeast coast and Florida.
The fall transition forecast shows a slower-than-usual shift into fall across much of the eastern U.S., with the red shading stretching from the Gulf Coast and Southeast through the Mid-Atlantic, Appalachians, Northeast and New England. A slower transition is also shown in the Pacific Northwest. By contrast, a small area of the central Rockies, including parts of Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, and Wyoming, is forecast to see a faster transition.
AccuWeather’s fall foliage forecast points to some of the most vibrant color in the northern tier of the country, with peak-quality foliage expected from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and interior Northeast, as well as along parts of the Pacific Northwest coast. Typical fall color is forecast across a broad swath of the West, central Plains, Mid-Atlantic and parts of Texas. More muted, or duller, foliage is shown across portions of the central Rockies, including areas near Denver and Salt Lake City, and across much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast.
The outlet’s harvesting outlook shows the best conditions across the northern half of the country, with good conditions shaded in green from the central Plains through the Midwest, Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Florida and southeast Georgia, as well as parts of South Carolina, were also highlighted.
Conditions are expected to be more fair across much of the southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Southeast. The most difficult harvest weather is centered farther south, where poor conditions are forecast from eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Deep South, according to the map.
AccuWeather’s drought intensity forecast highlights the most severe drought risk across the interior West, with a large red-shaded area extending from parts of Montana and Wyoming south through Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico. Moderate drought conditions surround that core area and also appear in portions of the northern Plains, the Great Lakes region, the Northeast and the Carolinas. Areas with some drought intensity are more widespread, stretching from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, across parts of the Plains, and through much of the Southeast and Florida.
The fall drought trends map shows improvement across much of the Southwest and southern Rockies, including parts of Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado, with another area of improvement stretching from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. Drought worsening is forecast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, including areas near Bismarck, Minneapolis and Des Moines, as well as parts of the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
The outlet’s flood forecast shows moderate flood risk across two main regions: a broad area of the Southwest, covering parts of California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico, and another zone stretching from Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley into the Deep South and Southeast.
AccuWeather’s tornado forecast calls for 50 to 70 tornadoes in September, followed by another 50 to 70 in October. The outlook then dips slightly for November, when 45 to 65 tornadoes are forecast.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Ben Kelly and Sam Wilson .
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