David Crowley's Chances of Beating Tom Tiffany After Wisconsin Primary Win
Newsweek · C · trust 22/100
0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. Democrats’ chances of holding onto the Wisconsin governor’s office have surged on prediction markets after moderate Democrat David Crowley won the state’s Democratic gubernatorial primary over progressive Francesca Hong.
Crowley, who is seeking to become the state’s first Black governor, narrowly defeated Hong after pitching himself as the candidate best positioned to defeat Representative Tom Tiffany, who is endorsed by President Donald Trump and won the Republican primary, in November.
Crowley's victory comes after he quit the race in early July, but revived his campaign with the endorsement of outgoing Democratic Governor Tony Evers less than two weeks later.
On prediction markets, Republican odds of flipping the governorship in November had surged above Democrats in the days leading up to Tuesday’s primary, as Hong appeared set to become the nominee, after public polls showed her with a commanding lead over Crowley and other candidates.
But after The Associated Press called the race for Crowley early Wednesday morning after Hong conceded, prediction markets once again favor Democrats to win the gubernatorial election in November.
As of 8 a.m. E.T. Kashi has given Democrats a 78 percent chance of holding onto the governor’s office in November, up from 39.4 percent on Sunday. Republicans’ odds have fallen to just 22 percent on the prediction market, from 61.8 percent on Sunday.
Democrats’ odds on winning in November have also climbed on rival prediction market Polymarket. As of 5:30 a.m. E.T. it gives Democrats a 77 percent of winning in November, up from 41 percent a day ago. Republican odds have fallen to 22 percent, down from 51 percent on Monday.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rank the Wisconsin gubernatorial race as a “toss up.”
This is a developing story. More to follow.
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