Trump-Backed Mike Mazzei's Chances of Beating Cyndi Munson In Oklahoma
Newsweek · C · trust 56/100
0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. Republican Mike Mazzei is the overwhelming favorite to defeat Democrat Cyndi Munson in Oklahoma’s gubernatorial election, according to two prediction markets, after emerging from a closely fought GOP primary runoff.
Mazzei, a businessman and former state senator, narrowly defeated Oklahoma Attorney General Gentner Drummond on Tuesday to secure the Republican nomination. The result was a victory for Trump, who endorsed Mazzei and attacked Drummond as a “FAKE Republican” shortly before the runoff.
Mazzei will face Munson, the Oklahoma House minority leader, in the November 3 general election to replace term-limited Republican Governor Kevin Stitt. No Democrat has won an Oklahoma gubernatorial election since Brad Henry secured a second term in 2006.
Prediction-market traders give Munson little chance of ending that losing streak. As of Wednesday morning, Polymarket priced a Republican victory at about 96 percent and a Democratic victory at 5 percent, with about $27,000 traded on the race.
Kalshi showed an even stronger advantage for the GOP, giving the Republican Party a 98 percent chance of winning while listing Munson’s chance at 11 percent. About $77,000 had been traded on the market. The figures are market prices driven by traders and should not be treated as polling or a conventional election forecast.
Newsweek has contacted Mazzei and Munson's campaigns, via email outside of normal working hours, for comment.
Mazzei’s path to the nomination began with a near tie in the June 16 primary. Drummond led the nine-candidate field with 26.25 percent of the vote, while Mazzei received 25.97 percent. Neither approached the majority required to avoid a runoff.
The ensuing 10-week contest became an expensive and increasingly combative. More than $14 million was spent on television and digital advertising during the runoff, largely by independent groups, after nearly $40 million had already been spent on the governor’s race, according to AdImpact figures cited by the AP.
Mazzei largely financed his campaign through personal loans totaling at least $11.9 million. Drummond loaned his campaign at least $3.5 million and raised about $4.8 million more than Mazzei in direct contributions, but the state attorney general was unable to convert that fundraising advantage into victory.
Trump reinforced his support for Mazzei in the closing days of the campaign, including brief remarks during a telephone rally on the eve of the vote that Mazzei said drew about 38,000 participants. After winning, Mazzei thanked the president for “helping us across the finish line.”
Addressing supporters in Tulsa, Mazzei also spoke about the Christian faith that sustained him after a serious car crash in 2008 and said the Bible would be one of the guides he used when making decisions. Drummond conceded and urged his rival to govern on behalf of all Oklahomans, including working families, farmers, teachers, first responders and law enforcement officers.
Mazzei has built his candidacy around fiscal management, describing leadership as “stewardship of taxpayer dollars” and “stewardship of public trust.” Her has campaigned to eliminate property tax for seniors and veterans.
His campaign says his approach is guided by the following principles: “live within your means, plan for uncertainty, and protect people from unnecessary risk." Mazzei has chaired the Oklahoma Senate Finance Committee and served as Governor Stitt’s secretary of budget from 2019 to 2020.
Munson, who became the first Asian American woman elected to the Oklahoma Legislature in 2015, has framed her campaign around affordability and public services. Her campaign says she is running to “solve Oklahoma’s biggest challenges,” with pledges to “invest in our schools and raise teacher pay,” provide tax relief, lower health care costs and seek a public vote on repealing the state’s abortion ban.
Oklahoma’s partisan balance gives Mazzei a substantial initial advantage. As of July 31, the state had nearly 1.3 million registered Republicans, compared with about 616,000 Democrats and 500,000 independent voters, according to the Oklahoma State Election Board.
Official election results also demonstrate the scale of Munson’s challenge. Stitt won reelection in 2022 with 55.45 percent of the vote, while Democrat Joy Hofmeister received 41.79 percent.
For Munson to make the race competitive, she would likely need overwhelming support in Oklahoma County, a strong showing in Tulsa County and improved Democratic turnout elsewhere, while also winning a significant share of independents and moderate Republicans.
Mazzei’s task will be to unite Republicans after a divisive and expensive runoff.
Trump’s involvement is also likely to shape the campaign. The president received more than 65 percent of the Oklahoma vote in each of his three presidential campaigns and carried every county each time. His endorsement gives Mazzei a connection to a Republican base, while allowing Munson to portray the election as a choice between state-focused leadership and national partisan politics.
The effectiveness of those competing messages—and whether Munson can raise enough money to communicate hers statewide—will help determine whether the contest becomes more competitive than its early prediction-market prices suggest.
Read the original at Newsweek →
Open in TruthVane →