Trump's Venezuela Oil Deal May Sink Marco Rubio's 2028 Chances
Newsweek · C · trust 50/100
0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spent more than a decade building his political identity around a single, uncompromising line: no daylight with Chavismo, ever. On Friday, the Trump administration announced an oil agreement negotiated directly with the government of Venezuela 's interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, Nicolás Maduro's former vice president.
Eight months after Maduro was captured and flown to New York in shackles, the deal has reopened a question that Rubio's allies and critics are both now asking out loud: What does this cost him if he decides to run for president in 2028?
President Donald Trump announced the arrangement on Truth Social, calling it "the biggest oil deal in world history." Under the terms described by both governments, a new joint venture will develop 17 Venezuelan oil fields holding a proven potential of 65 billion barrels, with the United States receiving an effective 55 percent stake in the output through a mix of direct ownership and the right to buy crude at production cost.
Rodríguez put the concession at 25 years in a televised address Saturday. A U.S. official who spoke to the Associated Press on condition of anonymity described the joint venture's rights to the fields as running 100 years. Neither government has released the text of the agreement, and the discrepancy remains unresolved.
Trump credited Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth with negotiating the deal alongside Rodríguez. Rubio called it "a huge win for both the American and Venezuelan people." Trump has gone further, calling the agreement a resounding success, "the biggest oil deal in world history."
Newsweek reached out to the State Department and the White House for comment Monday.
Polling by the Venezuelan firm Meganálisis earlier this year found more than 90 percent of Venezuelans are grateful that Maduro is gone. Trump's approval inside Venezuela has fallen steadily since January, according to Eduardo Gamarra, a political scientist and director of the Latino Public Opinion Forum at Florida International University.
"People still support getting Maduro out," Gamarra told Newsweek . "What they've stopped believing in is Delcy, and they've stopped believing in what Trump is doing."
Gamarra walked through how the grievances stacked up. Political prisoners, many of them military officers who turned against Maduro, remain jailed or released only on parole rather than freed outright. Diosdado Cabello, wanted in the United States on drug trafficking charges and in Spain on money laundering allegations, is now treated by Washington as a legitimate interlocutor instead of a fugitive. Then came the oil, which Gamarra said cuts deeper than either of those issues because of where it sits in Venezuelan history.
"This goes back to Juan Vicente Gómez, to Pérez Jiménez, when the American oil companies ran the country," Gamarra said. "Carlos Andrés Pérez nationalized the industry to correct that. Chavismo itself grew out of the fight over oil more than anything else. And now the same nationalist feeling that built that movement is what just got handed to Donald Trump, basically forever."
He added that he had heard the same argument that morning from conservative commentators on Miami radio.
Ricardo Hausmann, a Harvard economist and former Venezuelan planning minister, addressed his message directly to Rubio on X. "You have just lost any trust Venezuelans ever had on you, and it will come to haunt you," Hausmann wrote. "You opted to use US power, not to free Venezuelans, but to go to bed with our oppressors."
He called the arrangement "an unconstitutional deal with an illegitimate oppressive government," and said Rodríguez has "no legitimacy or constitutional power to commit Venezuela to any such deal." Hausmann also accused the administration of "preventing our leader, María Corina Machado, from returning to Venezuela," and of conspiring "to delay elections and the return to democracy."
Some of the criticism has focused on who Rubio chose to oversee the deal on the ground. The oil fields covered by the agreement are operated by North American Blue Energy Partners, led by Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt López. Betancourt made his fortune under Venezuela's socialist governments and was barred from leaving the United Kingdom until May while he fought a Swiss extradition request over alleged money laundering.
In his X post, Hausmann accused the Trump administration of "using wanted criminals, like Alejandro Betancourt, to make this shameful deal."
Michael McFaul, who served as U.S. ambassador to Russia under President Barack Obama, made a similar criticism of Rubio. Referring to Rodríguez, McFaul wrote that "cutting a deal with her to steal Venezuelan oil to benefit Americans is both immoral and impractical." He said he understood Trump's instincts, calling him an "imperialist," but said he was "surprised" that Rubio would go along with the plan.
Most Americans have opposed the idea of the U.S. taking control of Venezuela's oil. A Quinnipiac University poll released in March found that 55 percent of voters opposed the U.S. taking over Venezuela's oil sales, while 38 percent supported it. The same poll found that 57 percent opposed the U.S. "running" Venezuela in any capacity, and 73 percent opposed sending American ground forces into the country.
This is not the first time Rubio has faced accusations of abandoning the community that built his career. In May 2025, the Miami Herald editorial board published a piece headlined "Rubio used Venezuelans in his hometown for political gain. Now, he's betrayed them," after Rubio endorsed ending Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for roughly 350,000 Venezuelans, a reversal of a position he had championed since at least 2017.
Senator Chris Van Hollen, a Maryland…
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