Nobel Peace Prize 2026: Candidates With Higher Odds Than Donald Trump
Newsweek · C · trust 49/100
10 Loading video... By Jennifer Radcliffe 0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. President Donald Trump renewed his case for the Nobel Peace Prize on Wednesday , citing his record on international conflicts while acknowledging that it's unlikely he will receive the award.
“I don’t know what their decision is going to be,” Trump said at the White House ahead of Friday’s announcement. “They have a reputation for maybe not giving it to people like me.”
Trump said he has “settled eight wars” and saved “millions and millions of lives,” although parties to some of the conflicts he has cited dispute his diplomatic role and fighting has resumed in some regions. Russia’s war in Ukraine also remains unresolved.
Despite Trump’s take, traders on prediction markets are looking elsewhere. Humanitarian organizations and activists occupied the leading positions on Kalshi on Thursday, with Trump’s contract trading at about a 1 percent implied probability. Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms led at 15 percent, followed by Mykola Kuleba and Save Ukraine at 10 percent and Save the Children at 7 percent.
Prediction-market prices reflect traders’ expectations rather than information from the Norwegian Nobel Committee, whose nominations and deliberations are confidential. The committee has disclosed only that it received 287 candidates this year, comprising 208 individuals and 79 organizations. Nomination records and assessments remain sealed for 50 years.
“Humanitarian organizations, like the Sudan relief groups, are frequently awarded the prize because they are among the least controversial candidates. They save lives,” Michael Doyle , a Columbia University professor and former U.N. assistant secretary-general, told Newsweek .
“Political candidates have to overcome the paucity of genuine peaces and the controversies surrounding their negotiation and implementation,” he added.
The uncertainty surrounding the 2026 contest is reflected even in the market leader’s relatively modest price. With Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms trading at approximately 15 percent on Kalshi, traders were still assigning the great majority of the overall probability to another candidate winning.
“The Nobel Committee rarely leaks,” Doyle said, “and there are many humanitarian candidates, making successful prediction very difficult.”
The contenders ahead of Trump on Kalshi are dominated by humanitarian organizations, children’s advocates, democracy campaigners and international institutions.
The market is highly fluid. A contract trading at 15 cents represents approximately a 15 percent market-implied probability, not a scientific forecast or assessment from the Nobel Committee.
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms were the leading contender on Kalshi on Thursday, with an implied probability of about 15 percent. They also led the Polymarket board at roughly 17 percent.
The Emergency Response Rooms are community-led volunteer networks providing humanitarian assistance during Sudan’s civil war. The Peace Research Institute Oslo, or PRIO, named the network to its director’s updated list of possible candidates, citing the group’s provision of life-saving services amid one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises.
The group’s position illustrates the broader pattern Doyle identified: traders are favoring organizations whose records focus on direct humanitarian work rather than on politically contested peace negotiations.
Mykola Kuleba , the founder and head of Save Ukraine, was second on Kalshi at approximately 10 percent.
Kuleba established Save Ukraine in 2014 and has led efforts to rescue and support Ukrainian children abducted by Russia and assist families displaced by the war, according to PRIO. PRIO included Kuleba alongside Save the Children on its updated list, arguing that such a selection would draw attention to children affected by armed conflict.
Save the Children ranked third on Kalshi at approximately 7 percent and around 8 percent on Polymarket.
PRIO said the organization plays a central role in protecting children in conflict zones through its field programs and advocacy. It described Kuleba, Save Ukraine and Save the Children as strong possibilities for an award focused on children in war.
Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, was trading at approximately 5 percent on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
The 50-year-old chairs the Anti-Corruption Foundation founded by her late husband. Since his death, she has emerged as one of the Kremlin's most prominent critics and has said she plans to run for president once Vladimir Putin leaves power.
The International Court of Justice, the United Nations’ principal judicial body, had an implied probability of approximately 4 percent on the markets. It also appeared on PRIO’s updated list alongside the International Criminal Court.
The Committee to Protect Journalists, which advocates for journalists facing imprisonment, violence and censorship, was trading at approximately 3 percent on Kalshi. PRIO also included the organization on its updated shortlist.
Other candidates ahead of or roughly level with Trump on the market included Doctors Without Borders, the International Space Station partnership, the International Criminal Court, UNRWA, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Pope Leo XIV. Exact prices continued to change as trading proceeded.
PRIO’s list is not connected to the Nobel Committee and is not based on inside information. Its updated choices were Kuleba and Save the Children, Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, the Committee to Protect Journalists, the International Court of Justice and International Criminal Court, and the International Space Station.
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