Republican Defections in Texas Suburbs Could Sink Paxton and Abbott
Newsweek · C · trust 48/100
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0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. Democrats James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa have signed up far more donors than their Republican opponents in the Texas suburbs, the fast-growing counties around the state's biggest cities where Republicans have long made up for their losses in the urban cores, according to a Newsweek analysis of campaign finance records.
Between July and September, Talarico raised more than twice as much as Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton from individual donors in 19 suburban counties around Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin and San Antonio. In the governor's race, Hinojosa had more donors than Governor Greg Abbott in all 19, and by more than 10 to 1 in seven of them, including Collin, Williamson and Denton.
Early voting starts Monday. Polls have Talarico narrowly ahead in the Senate race and the governor's race close to even , and the suburbs are where Republicans have the least room to give.
Mark Jones, a political science fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute, told Newsweek that Republicans "rely on running up the numbers in the suburban areas to make up for the losses that they always experience in the big urban areas like Houston, Dallas, Austin and San Antonio."
"If Paxton doesn't do better than he's doing right now in the suburban areas, he may very well lose," he said.
Newsweek reviewed every itemized contribution from individual Texas donors in the Talarico and Paxton campaigns' third-quarter reports to the Federal Election Commission, which cover July 1 through September 30, and in the Abbott and Hinojosa campaigns' 30-day pre-election reports to the Texas Ethics Commission, which run through September 24. Each donor's ZIP code was assigned to the county it mostly falls in. Paxton's campaign also reported about $3.5 million in small contributions without donor addresses, which are not included.
Newsweek reached out to the Talarico, Paxton, Abbott and Hinojosa campaigns for comment.
Talarico's campaign reported $11.5 million in itemized contributions from about 38,000 Texans in the third quarter. Paxton's reported $4.3 million from about 8,300.
About 10,200 of Talarico's donors live in the suburban counties, and together they gave $2.6 million. Paxton had about 2,600 suburban donors and $1.1 million. Talarico raised more in 16 of the 19 counties, while Paxton came out ahead in Parker County, west of Fort Worth, and in Waller and Chambers, two lightly populated counties on the edge of the Houston area.
Collin County, north of Dallas, gave Talarico $480,000 from about 1,850 donors and Paxton $223,000 from about 490. Williamson County, north of Austin, split $503,000 to $100,000.
Even in Montgomery County, the Republican stronghold north of Houston that includes The Woodlands, Talarico raised $220,000 to Paxton's $162,000. He doubled Paxton's total in Fort Bend County.
Across the 248 suburban ZIP codes where either man raised money, Talarico led in 183 and had more donors in 207.
According to Jones, his own polling points the same way: "Paxton is losing by a pretty dramatic margin in the urban areas, and is deadlocked with Talarico in the suburban areas."
Abbott is the better-funded candidate. Texas sets no contribution limits for state races, and the governor raised $13.4 million from Texas donors over the period, compared with $8.7 million for Hinojosa.
His money came from about 7,700 Texans. Hinojosa's came from about 86,000.
In the suburbs, Abbott raised $1.96 million and Hinojosa $1.54 million. Half of the governor's suburban total is one check, $1 million from Kenneth Fisher of Rockwall County. Take it out, and Hinojosa raised more in the suburbs than the sitting governor.
She had more donors than Abbott in every suburban county and raised more money in 15 of them. Williamson County gave her $284,000 from about 4,060 donors, against $33,000 from about 230 for Abbott. In Collin County, she counted 3,726 donors to his 321, and Fort Bend went her way, $117,000 to $30,000.
Abbott's four suburban wins in dollars came in Rockwall, Comal, Montgomery and Johnson counties. Most of his $265,000 in Comal, north of San Antonio, was a single $250,000 contribution from John Weisman of New Braunfels.
Most of the Democrats' strongest suburban ZIP codes sit in Williamson and Hays counties, on either side of Austin.
Talarico's best was Georgetown's 78633, home to the Sun City Texas retirement community, where 281 donors gave him $79,000. Hinojosa counted 439 donors in the same ZIP code. Abbott had 62.
Cedar Park's 78613 topped Hinojosa's list with 584 donors and $42,700, while Paxton raised $7,900 there from 22 people. Near Houston, Sugar Land's 77479 gave Talarico $49,000, about three times Paxton's total, and Hinojosa had 339 donors there to Abbott's 27.
The gap is starkest in Hays County. In Kyle, Hinojosa had 383 donors and Abbott had eight.
Paxton's suburban money was spread across Republican neighborhoods north of Houston and Dallas and in the Hill Country, from Plano and The Woodlands to Boerne and Katy. His single best ZIP code was Georgetown's 78633, at $38,000.
Talarico still outraised him in eight of Paxton's own top 10. The two exceptions were Rockwall's 75032, where Paxton led $21,600 to $17,000, and Montgomery's 77316.
Abbott's list was built on a handful of large checks. Four of his top five suburban ZIP codes produced 16 or fewer donors each. Fisher's contribution put Rockwall's 75032 at the top, and in Plano's 75024, Aubrey's 76227 and Spring's 77380, one $100,000 contribution accounted for most of the governor's total. Hinojosa had more donors than Abbott in all 10 of those ZIP codes.
Paxton can't make up for weak suburbs with rural votes, said Jones, whose team plans to release a statewide survey on Sunday.
"Now he's going to crush Talarico in…
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