Earth’s Warming Primed France and Spain to Burn, Scientists Find
New York Times · LC · trust 52/100
The likelihood of hot, dry weather that helps wildfires spread has increased sharply in Europe in recent decades, according to a new report.
Listen · 3:25 min Share full article Firefighters battled a blaze near Formariz, Spain, this week. Credit... Umit Bektas/Reuters By Raymond Zhong
A team of scientists examined weather records to see how often the regions around Bordeaux, in southwest France, and Madrid have been as parched and primed to burn as they have been in the past few weeks. The researchers’ findings are the latest evidence that parts of Southern Europe should expect huge fires to become a recurring threat.
Such severe conditions are relatively rare for southwest France, with a 5 percent chance of appearing in any year there, the researchers estimated. But they were even less likely before humans began warming the planet by burning coal, gas and oil for energy, with half the probability of occurring, the researchers said.
For central Spain, the scientists found that the intense heat and dryness in July had roughly a 17 percent probability of occurring in a given year in the present-day climate. In the preindustrial world, however, the likelihood of such conditions would have been one-twentieth as high, the researchers estimated.
The new analysis of the blazes was conducted by World Weather Attribution, a research collaboration that examines extreme weather events to assess how much they were shaped by climate change. The group’s report on the latest fires has not yet been published in a peer-reviewed academic journal.
“We’ve seen repeatedly how climate change increases hot, dry, flammable conditions that are extremely conducive to wildfires,” said Clair Barnes, a climate researcher at Imperial College London and lead author of the analysis. “What’s unique about this case is that it’s still early in the season.” Southern Europe’s wildfire season generally runs from March through October.
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