The Message Behind Trump’s Threats of ‘Economic Warfare’ Against Iran
New York Times · LC · trust 48/100

President Trump’s threats of an “economic D-Day” carry a clear signal to Iran that he does not want to go back to war.
Listen · 6:59 min Share full article Among the challenges for President Trump is that he has repeatedly threatened Iran with destruction, only to pull back. Credit... Kenny Holston/The New York Times By Anton Troianovski and Alan Rappeport
The problem for the Trump administration is that Iran was also listening.
President Trump this week promised an “economic D-Day” against Iran, a “crushing” operation to “cripple” Iran. The U.S. clampdown is formidable, a combination of wartime destruction, a naval blockade and sanctions that have already put the Iranian economy under more pressure than its regime has experienced in decades.
But between the lines of the administration’s threats was a signal that Mr. Bessent made as clear as ever on Thursday: Mr. Trump does not want to go back to war right now. The president is waging an economic campaign against Iran having already spent weeks bombing the country earlier this year, and having stepped back from multiple threats since then to resume the violence.
As a result, experts say, Mr. Trump is stuck in a conflict with limited leverage, a demonstrated vulnerability and an emboldened adversary. Even as Iran reels from shortages and inflation, Mr. Trump is likely to increasingly feel the pressure of the approaching midterm elections in the shadow of an unpopular war and high gas prices. It is a dangerous combination, experts say, that could prompt Iran to sense American weakness and lash out.
“They read him now as not wanting to escalate militarily,” Dennis B. Ross, a former Middle East negotiator for presidents of both parties, said of Iran’s leaders. “That creates an incentive for them to show that they may escalate militarily.”
Mr. Bessent told CNBC on Thursday that the Treasury Department would hold a news conference about the new measures targeting Iran next Monday. He said traders had been wrong to bid up the price of oil in response, given that the administration’s new economic threats were a sign there would not be an immediate return to full-scale bombing.
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