Here are the 3 big things we're watching in this holiday-shortened trading week
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Here are the 3 big things we're watching in this holiday-shortened trading week Published Mon, Sep 7 2026 7:31 PM EDT Zev Fima @zevfima Kevin Stankiewicz Goodbye, summer. With Labor Day marking the unofficial end of summer, traders and portfolio managers will return from vacations and be back at their desks in full force. Portfolios tend to see some house-cleaning adjustments. Trading volumes pick up. Midterm elections are also on the horizon this year, which can add volatility in the run-up to November. This holiday-shortened week of trading gets started with a bang: a fresh batch of inflation data that will influence the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates; an iPhone launch event that will double as an introduction to the new CEO of the world's second-most valuable company; and a slate of investor conferences where we'll hear from executives at Club holdings as earnings season slows to trickle. Also: on Thursday, we'll hold our September Monthly Meeting at our regular start time of noon ET. Now, here's a closer look at what we're watching this week: 1. Inflation data: The August producer price index (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI) are due out on Thursday and Friday. The data come ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's Sept. 15-16 policy meeting, where market odds are back to pricing in roughly a 60% chance of a hike, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Fed Governor Christopher Waller summed up the stakes nicely in market-moving comments this past Thursday at an event hosted by Reuters. Here's a key excerpt (from a transcript posted by the Fed): As of today, the labor market is stable, with employment near its maximum sustainable level, and inflation is making slow but continued progress on reaching 2%. We will get another employment report and inflation reading before the next FOMC meeting. I don't expect that the employment data will deviate much from what we have been seeing. So my decision on the appropriate stance of policy will be heavily influenced by what we learn about August inflation. If there is continued progress toward our 2% goal, then I am willing to support holding the policy rate at its current level. But if inflation comes in hot, I would consider a rate hike. I judge that policy is currently only slightly restricting aggregate demand, and it may not take much acceleration in inflation to nudge me into supporting tighter policy. If there is evidence that progress toward 2% inflation reversed in August, a small adjustment in our stance would help ensure that it resumes. The market on Thursday greeted Waller's comments cheerfully, focusing on his current inclination to keep rates steady. This was notable after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's perceived tough talk on inflation at the Jackson Hole symposium caused market probabilities to lean toward a quarter-point hike in September. Waller's comments shifted odds of a hike to a 50-50 toss up — and fueled a stock rally Thursday — only for Friday's stronger-than-expected jobs report to reverse the shift. Waller was right that Friday's jobs report didn't materially change our understanding of the labor market, underscoring just how resilient its been in the face of the Iran war. Thus, the stakes are high for this week's inflation data. If it comes in hotter than expected, traders may brace for a hike. If it comes in cooler, a hold may become more likely. One caveat: Given the role that high oil prices have played in rekindled inflation this year, any encouraging updates on a resolution to the Iran war that we receive in the coming days may be considered supportive of keeping rates steady, irrespective of the backward-looking August data. Thursday's wholesale PPI is expected to show a 0.4% month over month increase and a 5.4% increase year over year, according to economists polled by FactSet. On a core basis, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, core PPI is expected be up 0.3% month over month and 4.6% annually. PPI measures prices that producers are paid for their output, so it's seen as a leading indicator for consumer inflation. Consensus for Friday's CPI is a 0.36% month-over-month increase and a 3.3% annual gain, according to FactSet. On a core basis, CPI is expected to be up 0.2% from the prior month and up 2.3% annually. 2. iPhone launch: On Wednesday, Apple holds its annual hardware launch event, and it should be an exciting one. The company is branding it as "surprise and shine." For starters, it will be new CEO John Ternus' first event at the helm of Apple after replacing Tim Cook on Sept. 1. Cook slid into an executive chairman role. While most of the updates are likely to be what longtime Apple watchers expect — a new iPhone 18, updates to the Apple Watch, new AirPods and maybe new smart-home offerings — it's widely believed this will be the week Apple finally enters the foldable smartphone arena . Anything with a new form factor (like a foldable phone) is sure to garner most of the attention, especially on Wall Street, as analysts rush to calculate potential demand and sales for the new offering. The price of the foldable phone is expected to be well north of $2,000, Bloomberg News has reported . Still, market research firm IDC expects Apple to ship more than 17 million foldable iPhones by 2027, securing a 40% share in a market dominated by Samsung and China's Huawei. Away from the foldable intrigue, perhaps the biggest question is where Apple prices the iPhone 18s due to what Cook called the "100-year flood" of soaring memory costs. To date, Apple has only hiked prices on the Mac and iPad lineups, along with a few smart home offerings. The iPhone, however, is the company's bread and butter when it comes to hardware. So, while we understand the…
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