What China's delay means for the US-China moon race
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Comments: by Mark Whittington, opinion contributor - 08/30/26 10:00 AM ET Comments: Link copied by Mark Whittington, opinion contributor - 08/30/26 10:00 AM ET Comments: Link copied NASA via AP The liftoff of China’s Chang’e 7 mission to the moon has been delayed into 2027. Ars Technica reports that the Chinese are being vague about the exact reasons for the delay, only suggesting it is due to, adhering to “the principle of proceeding prudently and reliably, and ensuring absolute success.”
The Chinese mission includes an orbiter, a lander, a rover, and a hopper. The orbiter would circle the moon to narrow down a suitable landing site. Then the lander would touch down, deploying the rover and hopper, likely on the rim of the Shackleton Crater to prospect for ice. Ice is all-important as a resource that would support lunar exploration and development.
When it does lift off, this Chinese ship will be the most complex, sophisticated expedition to Earth’s nearest neighbor since the Apollo lunar landings. It is a reminder that NASA and its international and commercial partners are in a space race, with a prize that illuminates the night sky with a promise of riches, knowledge, and international prestige.
While Typhoon Narra likely was a major contributing factor to the delay, the Chinese have not specifically blamed the storm. This suggests that an underlying technical issue or even several issues may exist that has pushed the launch of the Chang’e into 2027.
In any case, the next window opens up in February or March 2027. If the Chinese are not experiencing technical issues regarding the Chang’e — as they did with the recent loss of the Long March 7A — they should be free to exercise a little more transparency. Otherwise, outside observers have to draw their own conclusions in the dark.
The delay does have some implications for the Space Race 2.0 that the Chinese will not like. It suggests that China may not be able to hold on to preannounced schedules, such as their planned 2030 crewed moon landing. As complex as Chang’e is, an attempt to land people on the moon and bring them home safely to the Earth is significantly more complex. A failed robotic landing is one thing. Dead taikonauts are quite another.
During a Senate hearing in September 2025, former NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine suggested that it was “highly unlikely” that the U.S. would beat China back to the moon. He cited the SpaceX Starship Human Landing System as a reason, which will require multiple refueling flights in low Earth orbit before proceeding to the moon.
Current NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, on the other hand, has expressed confidence that the Artemis IV crewed lunar landing mission will make the 2028 launch time, which would easily beat the Chinese back to the moon, all other things being equal. However, if the Chinese have to delay their crewed lunar landing mission, NASA and its partners will have more time to iron out any problems, especially with the Human Landing System.
In the meantime, the Chinese delay opens up the possibility that Blue Origin’s Blue Moon Mark 1 will steal a march on the Chinese and wind up being the first robotic probe to land on the lunar south pole. The Blue Moon was scheduled to launch this year but was delayed due to the loss of Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket during a static fire test in May 2026, which also destroyed the launch pad. Blue Origin thinks it can rebuild the launch pad by the end of 2026 and thus be able to return to flight either late this year or early in 2027.
Space Race 2.0 includes several firsts that both sides are straining to achieve, such as the first robotic probe to the lunar south pole, the first crewed landing in the 21st century, and finally, the first permanent lunar base.
The lunar base is the main prize, especially because of NASA’s plan to create a virtual lunar city of hundreds of square miles in area . Given the security provisions of the Artemis Accords , NASA and its international and commercial partners would be able to deny access to a great deal of lunar resources and real estate to the Chinese.
Of course, the Chinese might try to do the same thing and deny access to its base and environs to everyone else. But China is not a party to the Artemis Accords, so their justification under international law might be tenuous at best.
It is a messy way to handle a return to the moon, but the only way available, considering current geopolitical realities.
Mark Whittington, who writes frequently about space policy, has published a political study of space exploration titled “Why is It So Hard to Go Back to the Moon? ” as well as “ The Moon, Mars and Beyond ” and “ Why is America Going Back to the Moon? ” He blogs at Curmudgeons Corner.
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