Francesca Hong's Chances of Beating Crowley in Wisconsin as Barnes Exits
Newsweek · C · trust 67/100
0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. Mandela Barnes, the former lieutenant governor of Wisconsin , dropped out of the state’s Democratic gubernatorial primary on Thursday, leaving state Representative Francesca Hong and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley as the two frontrunners vying for the party’s nomination.
Wisconsin is a battleground state roughly evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans, backing President Donald Trump by less than a percentage point in 2024—the narrowest margin of any state. With Democratic Governor Tony Evers retiring at the end of the year, the race is expected to be among the most competitive of the 2026 midterm elections .
His exit comes as Hong, a Democratic socialist, has built out a lead in recent polls in the Democratic primary, sparking anxiety from some in the party’s establishment that she may be too progressive to win in such a competitive state; Crowley has received the backing of more moderate Democrats, including Evers.
Barnes’ announcement comes less than two weeks before the August 11 primary. Whichever Democrat prevails is likely to face Representative Tom Tiffany, viewed as the frontrunner in the Republican primary, in the November general election.
Barnes announced his exit from the race in a video posted on X on Thursday, saying he is “incredibly proud” of what his campaign has accomplished but that it has “become very clear who our nominee is going to be.”
“I’ve said from the very beginning when I launched this campaign that my number one goal was taking on and defeating Tom Tiffany to deliver big wins for Democrats up and down the ticket,” he said. “Now, it’s our time to come together to focus our efforts on that one goal.”
Both major Democratic candidates made efforts to consolidate support from Barnes' voters. Hong wrote in a statement that the Barnes campaign “helped grow the progressive movement” and that she welcomes his supporters to her “movement.” Crowley wrote in a post to X that “there’s a place for” his voters in what he is “building.”
According to Marquette Law School pollster Charles Franklin, Hong was favored as the second choice among a plurality of Barnes supporters. Forty-three percent of Barnes supporters said Hong was their second choice, compared to 10 percent who listed Crowley as their backup.
Six percent said other candidates were their second choice. But 41 percent said they weren’t sure who their second choice was. Franklin posted the results to X on Thursday after Barnes announced the end of his campaign.
The Marquette poll found Hong leading with 38 percent among all Democratic voters, while Barnes followed at 16 percent. Crowley received 7 percent in the poll, while other candidates polled at 4 percent. A significant number—34 percent—were still undecided.
It surveyed 407 registered voters in Wisconsin who said they plan to vote in the Democratic primary from July 22-27, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 6.6 percentage points.
Another new poll found Hong leading the field with 44 percent, followed by Crowley at 15 percent and Barnes at 14 percent. Other candidates polled in the single digits, while 13 percent were undecided in the poll. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Anthony Chergosky, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse, told Newsweek earlier this week that Hong's lead “reflects the anti-establishment sentiment we have seen in Democratic primaries around the country.”
“She has also run a distinctive, grassroots-oriented, and very online-friendly campaign. Her democratic socialism separates her from the field,” he said.
A Public Policy Polling survey, sponsored by Crowley’s campaign, showed Hong’s support at 35 percent, Barnes at 15 percent and Crowley at 14 percent. It surveyed 708 likely voters from July 21-22, 2026.
Hong’s polling lead has stirred anxiety from some Democrats who are concerned that her affiliation with the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) and more progressive views could alienate moderate voters in the state. If she wins the nomination, the race would become one of the most prominent gauges as to whether progressive Democrats can win in more purple areas, rather than just deep blue districts and cities.
“The Dem race for governor in WI feels like a slow-rolling car headed for a cliff. If Dems there don't figure it out, they'll endanger a potential House pickup opportunity and risk installing as governor an election-denying, Freedom Caucus member just in time for the '28 election,” Democratic strategist David Axelrod wrote in a July 23 post on X.
Activist Shannon Watts warned on X that the race “will have significant down ballot consequences.”
“All 99 seats in the assembly are up for election. To win control, Dems only need a net gain of 5 seats. Seventeen of 33 Senate seats are on the ballot. Dems only need a net gain of 2 seats for control. Instead, we may be looking at a Republican trifecta,” she wrote.
Related Story Socialist Francesca Hong Surges in Wisconsin Despite Democrat Anxiety Joe Wineke, former chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, raised concerns about Hong's candidacy in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.
“She is the ultimate far-left candidate. It might work in a primary, but it’s not going to work very well in a general,” he said.
Prior to Trump’s win in 2024, Wisconsin was decided by razor-thin margins in other prior presidential cycles, backing former President Joe Biden by less than a point in 2020 and Trump by less than a point in 2016. Former President Barack Obama won the state by larger margins—14 percentage points in 2008 and 7 points in 2012.
The state's political geography has shifted significantly in recent years. Republicans have consolidated strength among rural, white working-class voters, many…
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