Michigan Senate Democratic primary too close to call: 5 takeaways
The Hill · C · trust 53/100
Comments: by Julia Mueller and Caroline Vakil - 08/05/26 2:19 AM ET Comments: Link copied by Julia Mueller and Caroline Vakil - 08/05/26 2:19 AM ET Comments: Link copied NOW PLAYING The marquee race for the Democratic Senate nod in Michigan was too close to call early Wednesday morning, stretching out a primary race that’s spotlit Democrats’ fight for the future of the party.
Abdul El-Sayed was leading Rep. Haley Stevens (D) by over a point as of 6:15 a.m. EDT, according to Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ).
The Michigan Senate race is perhaps this cycle’s biggest front in the battle for the direction of the Democratic Party, after its far-left faction notched notable primary wins and ousted some longtime lawmakers earlier this year.
Though some in the party are looking to progressive or democratic socialist figures for new leadership after the party’s 2024 losses, mainstream Democrats fret that candidates like El-Sayed will be tough sells to general election voters in November’s midterms.
Meanwhile, Tuesday’s primaries solidified matchups in several must-win House races in Michigan, Virginia and Washington. And President Trump’s preferred candidates cleared their primaries in closely watched races for governor in Kansas and Michigan, where the sitting Democratic governors are being termed out.
In Michigan, El-Sayed was leading the Democratic Senate primary at nearly 49 percent to Steven’s 47 percent, as of 6:15 am EDT.
Mallory McMorrow, who suspended her campaign in early July amid low polling numbers, had notably pulled in 4 percent of the vote.
While the race remained too close to call, McMorrow issued her endorsement for El-Sayed early Wednesday morning.
“I’m proud to give Abdul my full endorsement and support as we head to November together as a unified party,” she said in a statement.
“Take it from me — this was a brutal primary. But whatever differences there were between the candidates in this race, those differences are nothing compared to the contrast in November,” she added.
The winner will take on former Rep. Mike Rogers (R), the Trump-backed Republican nominee who narrowly lost the 2024 Senate election to Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) and was unopposed in the GOP contest.
Stevens told supporters that she was “feeling good” about the race as she acknowledged the vote count could continue into Wednesday.
“We knew that this was going to be a close race. And that’s exactly what we’ve got,” Stevens said just before 1 a.m. EDT.
El-Sayed also acknowledged that it “takes a long time to count some votes in Michigan,” but turned attention toward the general as he railed against Rogers.
“Whatever happens tonight, we have a responsibility to assure that we unite to make sure that Mike Rogers never sees the inside of the U.S. Senate,” he said.
The Michigan Senate seat, being vacated by retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D), is a must-win for both parties in the high-stakes fight for the upper chamber.
Cook Political Report rates it a “toss up” contest. DDHQ predicts that it leans toward Democrats – but, if Republicans win this race, they jump to an 86 percent chance of holding the Senate.
“If Democrats are going to find a path to a majority, they cannot afford to lose Michigan,” DDHQ’s chief elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley told The Hill last month.
Tuesday night’s most closely watched primaries put a spotlight on Democratic infighting over the future of a party still grappling with major losses in the last presidential race.
With fewer than 100 days before the midterms, Democrats are favored to win the House and slight underdogs in the fight for the Senate, according to DDHQ’s forecasts. They’re poised to benefit from the historic trend that shows the party out of power gaining ground in a midterm year, while Republicans are plagued by voter woes around the economy and the Iran war.
But Democrats are divided over the best way forward to recapture power in Washington. High-profile primary wins by Democratic socialist and anti-establishment candidates have energized the party’s far-left faction – but they’ve also sparked centrist concern that the party could be seen as too extreme in the general election.
A handful of races in the Great Lakes State, have given center-left Democrats heartburn as they try to capture voters in the middle and across the aisle in the swing state.
In the battleground 7 th Congressional District, Will Lawrence, the co-founder of the Sunrise Movement, is projected to win the Democratic primary to face GOP Rep. Tom Barrett after two moderate candidates split the primary vote.
The night’s biggest test of party direction, the Democratic Senate primary, was still too close to call.
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) has loomed large over the midterms, particularly in Democratic contests, and the Michigan Senate race has been no exception.
AIPAC’s super PAC, United Democracy Project, has spent over $30 million to attack Sayed, who has called the humanitarian crisis playing out in Gaza a genocide and is critical of U.S. aid to Israel – and support Stevens, who disputes that characterization of Israel’s actions in Gaza and wants U.S. support for Israel to continue.
With the Senate race too close to call on election day, it remains to be seen whether AIPAC’s big bet will pay off.
Over in Missouri, Rep. Wesley Bell (D) fended off a comeback bid from former Rep. Cori Bush (D), a member of the so-called progressive “Squad” on Capitol Hill who was running to retake her seat in the solidly blue 1 st Congressional District with support from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).
Bell ousted Bush in the 2024 Democratic primary with help from a group aligned with AIPAC, while Bush was a staunch critic of…
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