Why an El-Sayed win in Michigan is important for Ocasio-Cortez
The Hill · C · trust 64/100
Comments: by Amie Parnes - 10/13/26 6:00 AM ET Comments: Link copied by Amie Parnes - 10/13/26 6:00 AM ET Comments: Link copied Jose Juarez, Associated Press Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate primary candidate Abdul El-Sayed, right, is joined on stage by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) during a campaign rally, July 18, 2026, in Detroit. As Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) considers whether she’ll run for president or seek a New York Senate seat, the outcome of Michigan’s Senate race pitting a progressive Democrat against a former GOP congressman could help shape her decision.
Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed is battling former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) to succeed the retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.).
A win by El-Sayed would give progressives a tangible data point to bolster their argument that their brand of politics can win statewide — particularly in a critical battleground state like Michigan.
And the victory could be especially significant for Ocasio-Cortez, who is set to campaign with El-Sayed this week.
Ocasio-Cortez will join El-Sayed beginning Thursday on a two-day swing through Michigan where she will appear on his “It Shouldn’t Be This Hard” bus tour through the state’s Upper Peninsula. On Friday, she’ll appear in southeastern Michigan for campaign rallies at two colleges and a separate event with Latino voters.
A win by El-Sayed could strengthen the case for the congresswoman to launch a presidential bid in 2028 and build on that momentum, Democratic strategists say.
“The one race in 2026 that will impact what happens in 2028 is the Michigan Senate race,” said Democratic strategist Joel Payne. “That will set the tone for the 2028 primary field and will do a lot to prove theories from all sides of the Democratic coalition.”
While El-Sayed is not a democratic socialist, his campaign themes are very similar to Ocasio-Cortez’s on the economy and foreign policy — from supporting Medicare for All to harsh criticisms of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to calling for a change in the way the U.S. handles Israel.
If a candidate in Michigan can win statewide office on those issues, it bodes well for Ocasio-Cortez in a national race. And it would all suggest the wave of progressive politics that first elevated Ocasio-Cortez is growing stronger across the country.
Referring to Ocasio-Cortez specifically, one major Democratic donor, put it this way: “I don’t see a world in which first [Democratic New York City Mayor] Zohran Mamdani wins, and then Abdul El-Sayed wins a year later, and she doesn’t take that as a cue for her own entree into the 2028 presidential primary.”
“It would be silly if all that happened and she looked the other way,” the donor said.
Ocasio-Cortez was candid about her decisionmaking process in an interview with The New York Times last month, telegraphing pretty clearly that she’s aware she may only have one go at a presidential run, nodding to the moment where progressives and democratic socialists have had some success in recent months.
“There’s an argument that some make that this is a very unique political window and, oftentimes in politics, you do only get one shot,” the congresswoman told the Times.
But Ocasio-Cortez was even more direct about how she feels an El-Sayed win would translate to other races — including possibly her own.
Speaking at a fundraiser for El-Sayed in New York last week, according to audio obtained by ABC News, Ocasio-Cortez told attendees that a win by El-Sayed “would break open the entire political calculus in America — period.”
“Because if you can win, if Abdul can win in Michigan, anybody can win anywhere,” she said. “Anywhere.”
Recent polls show that Ocasio-Cortez is in the top 5 of potential 2028 Democratic presidential contenders. She draws roughly 11 percent support in the RealClearPolling national average — coming in fourth place behind former Vice President Kamala Harris, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
A July survey of likely Democratic voters in New Hampshire — which remains one of the early state primaries — shows her leading the field with 22 percent support.
Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons said it’s clear more progressive candidates are “having a moment” and Ocasio-Cortez could benefit from that support among the electorate.
But, Simmons said, “It’s unclear how much we overestimate the strength they’re having.”
“They’re winning but all Democrats are winning,” Simmons said. “Some of it is just anti-Trump fervor and in normal times it may not hold.”
Ocasio-Cortez, he said, is doing the “risk-reward analysis” of “go now or hold your fire,” and it’s unclear where she might end up.
“The probability for success in a Senate race is much greater” than a presidential race, he said. “But there’s a risk in waiting for it because she might not have another opportunity for a Senate seat for a while.”
Other Democrats say if El-Sayed wins Michigan, it may offer some clarity. But it doesn’t 100 percent answer the question of her being able to win in a somewhat blue but sometimes competitive presidential state, said Democratic strategist Eddie Vale.
“I think what she — and frankly everyone on the different sides of current ideological fights — are going to need to take the results of the midterms as providing important information, but not being decisive proof,” Vale said.
The donor, however, maintained that Ocasio-Cortez stands the most to benefit from an El-Sayed victory.
“If he wins, she comes out the clear winner,” the donor said. “And that will make it harder for her to say no.”
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