Progressives' Odds of Defeating Moderate Democrats in 4 Primary Races Today
Newsweek · C · trust 45/100
0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. Democratic primaries in states like Michigan and Missouri present opportunities for progressives to defeat moderates on Tuesday, as the political left hopes to build on its success in earlier races.
Progressives scored major victories, winning primaries for congressional seats in places like Denver, New York and Philadelphia, as frustration with the Democratic Party boils over. Several incumbent Democrats have lost to more progressive challengers . Tuesday’s primaries will test the appetite for more progressive candidates in more moderate or conservative states in the Midwest.
The progressive wave comes as Democratic voters express disappointment with what they view as the party establishment’s feeble response to President Donald Trump’s second term in office.
Voters have argued that party leadership has not done enough to push back against his administration. A new poll from YouGov and The Economist found that 73 percent of Democrats believe their elected officials challenge Trump "too little," a major red flag for the party establishment as it works to protect its members from progressive challenges.
The Michigan Senate primary between progressive Abdul El-Sayed and centrist Haley Stevens has garnered the most attention, as it’s a high-stakes race that could ultimately determine control of the chamber in the November midterm elections . But there are several other House races that could see progressive candidates surge over moderates, one of which is a toss-up for the general.
The three House races that could be major bellwethers for the mood of the electorate are in Michigan’s 7th District, a swing district where progressive William Lawrence is facing off against two more moderate Democrats to challenge GOP Representative Tom Barrett; Michigan’s 13th District, where Representative Shri Thanedar is facing a challenge from progressive state legislator Donavan McKinney; and Missouri’s 1st District, where Representative Wesley Bell is facing a rematch against former Representative Cori Bush.
Newsweek reached out to each of their campaigns for comment via email.
In this critical swing district , Lawrence, a co-founder of progressive organization Sunrise Movement, is facing off against two more moderate Democrats, Bridget Brink, the former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, as well as Matt Maasdam, a former Navy SEAL and White House official.
The race is expected to be one of the most competitive in the general election, with the Cook Political Report considering it a toss-up. The district backed Trump by only a single point in the 2024 election. Barrett flipped the seat in 2024, when its then-Representative Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat, was elected senator.
It’s based around Lansing, a critical base of Democratic support and home to Michigan State University, as well as more rural, conservative parts of central Michigan and some suburban areas near Detroit.
The latest poll of the race, released by Global Strategy Group, showed Lawrence with 38 percent support compared to Maasdam’s 27 percent and Brink’s 19 percent. It surveyed 500 likely voters from July 23-26, 2026 and was sponsored by Maasdam’s campaign.
An earlier poll from GQR, sponsored by Brink’s campaign, showed her in the lead with 30 percent, followed by Lawrence at 23 percent and Maasdam at 17 percent. It surveyed 400 likely voters from June 22-27, 2026.
Prediction markets favor Lawrence, with Kalshi giving him a 92 percent chance of victory, followed by Brink’s 7 percent and Maasdam’s 2 percent. On Polymarket, Lawrence had a 93 percent chance of winning, compared to Brink’s 4 percent and Maasdam’s 1 percent.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.
Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
Brink told Newsweek she has spent her "whole life taking on tough fights from standing up to Putin and Trump as the first female war zone ambassador to fighting breast cancer—and that's exactly why I'm in this race and why I'll never stop fighting for what's right."
"Voters know who they can trust to stand up to Trump and take on a broken Washington full of politicians who do the bidding of corporate special interests while leaving mid-Michigan families behind. Despite over $6 million in dark money flowing into this race, including from the AI data center industry, voters see through these lies and smears and are fed up with this kind of politics," she said.
Michigan’s 13th District is based in Detroit, the largest city in Michigan. Thanedar, a businessman first elected in 2022, is facing a challenge from Donavan McKinney, a progressive backed by the organization Justice Democrats.
Although progressives have rallied behind McKinney, Thanedar has also built up a fairly progressive record in Congress. McKinney is still seen as the more left-leaning candidate and is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA).
Only one poll of the race has been made public, coming from the progressive organization Data for Progress. It showed Thanedar up four points over McKinney, 46 percent to 42 percent. It surveyed 324 likely voters from July 9-15, 2026.
Prediction markets favor McKinney, who had an 88 percent chance of winning on both Kalshi and Polymarket as of Tuesday morning.
McKinney told Newsweek on Tuesday he is "super optimistic" about his chances of winning the primary. He said there is a "lot of energy on the ground" and momentum for his campaign in Detroit.
"People feel like they’re being left behind. They don’t feel heard. They don’t feel like their needs are being…
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