Could El-Sayed Cost Democrats Michigan?
New York Times · LC · trust 49/100
Not all progressives are equal: Candidates of the activist left typically don’t perform as well as other Democrats.
Share full article Credit... Illustration by The New York Times; Photograph by Julia Demaree Nikhinson/Associated Press By Nate Cohn
It’s not a state Democrats can take for granted anymore. There are clear signs that the newly minted Democratic nominee, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, could underperform a typical Democratic candidate’s vote share by enough to endanger the party’s chances.
Start with the polls . A Fox News poll released Thursday found the Republican Mike Rogers leading Dr. El-Sayed by four percentage points. This was the first poll taken since the primary and, ominously for Democrats, it’s not really any better for Dr. El-Sayed than the polls taken before the primary. In fact, Dr. El-Sayed hasn’t led in any general election poll fielded over the last month.
It’s important not to read too much into these early polls. The primary was divisive, and Dr. El-Sayed’s support could rise if Democrats consolidate around him. And Democrats have no business losing Michigan in such a favorable national political environment.
But the polls nonetheless raise the possibility that he could significantly underperform, and they aren’t the only reason to think he’s at risk of doing so. Historically, candidates of the activist left have tended to fare much worse than other Democratic candidates.
Progressive and moderate analysts have been arguing for years about whether Democrats pay a meaningful electoral price when they nominate progressives.
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