California voters back a billionaire tax, but the proposal falls short of majority support
NBC News · LC · trust 54/100
In the poll, 48% said they would vote “yes” on the proposal, while 38% said they would vote “no.” Another 14% said they were undecided.
The 10-point lead for “yes” is outside the poll’s margin of error, which is plus or minus 4 percentage points for each side’s support level.
The spread was almost identical among Hispanic likely voters, according to a companion survey of California : 50% said they’d vote “yes,” 40% said they’d vote “no,” and 10% said they were undecided. Both surveys were conducted Sept. 21-24.
The so-called billionaire tax — which will appear on the November ballot as “Proposition 40” — would implement a one-time 5% tax on the assets of Californians with net worths exceeding $1.1 billion, and it would require the state to spend 90% of the new revenue on healthcare. The remaining 10% would be split between education and food assistance programs.
In addition to the one-time tax on those worth more than $1.1 billion, the measure, if it is passed, would implement a smaller tax on individuals worth between $1 billion and $1.1 billion. The taxes would apply retroactively to anyone living in the state as of Jan. 1, 2026.
The ballot measure comes amid a growing wealth gap nationwide — and growing ill feeling toward the ultra-wealthy, driving populist campaigning in the 2026 midterm elections. In an earlier national NBC News poll , raising taxes on billionaires was the most popular candidate attribute out of 15 tested.
Meanwhile, progressive candidates proposing higher taxes on billionaires have seen success in numerous elections throughout the country, although not all efforts to raise taxes on the wealthy have gone smoothly. In New York City, a judge has pressed pause on Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s bid to tax valuable second homes, citing issues with how Mamdani’s administration implemented the plan.
In California, the billionaire tax proposal on the ballot has divided Democratic leaders. Prominent proponents — including Rep. Ro Khanna, a potential 2028 presidential candidate, and Tom Steyer, a billionaire activist who unsuccessfully ran for governor — argue it would help close income inequality gaps and help make up for state budget shortfalls as a result of Medicaid cuts in President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill.”
Opponents of the ballot measure, including Gov. Gavin Newsom and the Democratic candidate to succeed him this year, Xavier Becerra, have argued the initiative would drive wealthy investors and tech leaders from the state.
The details of the proposal, which has been led by Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West, a large California healthcare workers union, have also sparked opposition from many other unions and Democratic groups. Those groups have taken issue with the fact that other progressive policy priorities, like public education and food assistance, would benefit far less than healthcare from the new revenue.
Many Democratic critics have also joined forces with some Republicans, many of whom have long argued that a wealth tax could destabilize California’s revenue streams by causing the ultrarich to flee the state.
But the new poll showed California voters were largely not worried about the prospect of wealthy California residents’ leaving.
A total of 59% of respondents said they were either “not” or “not too” concerned about that potential outcome, while a total of 41% said they were “very” or “somewhat” concerned about rich people’s leaving the state because of the ballot measure. Among Hispanic voters, 62% said they were either “not” or “not too” concerned, while 38% said they were “very” or “somewhat” concerned.
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