What to watch in Arizona’s primaries
The Hill · C · trust 53/100
Comments: by Caroline Vakil - 07/21/26 6:00 AM ET Comments: Link copied by Caroline Vakil - 07/21/26 6:00 AM ET Comments: Link copied NOW PLAYING The Grand Canyon State is holding an earlier-than-usual July primary on Tuesday, teeing up consequential races for governor, key statewide election offices and congressional races.
Arizona lawmakers passed legislation in February to change their primary date from August to July to make sure the state had enough time to prepare for the November general election.
Republicans are eyeing a rare opportunity to oust first-term Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) while Democrats are looking to clinch several toss-up congressional seats as they fight to flip the House in the fall.
President Trump looms large over the GOP contests, which will test the strength of his endorsements as well as voter appetite for his strand of election denialism
Here’s what to watch ahead of Arizona’s primaries.
Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) is almost certainly set to win Tuesday’s primary against Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) for the GOP nod to take on Hobbs in the November election.
Public polling has long shown Biggs comfortably leading Schweikert by double digits in the Republican gubernatorial contest.
Developer Karrin Taylor Robson launched a bid for the seat last year and even received Trump’s endorsement. But the president later endorsed Biggs as well, making it a double endorsement, and Taylor Robson dropped out of the race in February.
Two businessmen, Ken Miceli and Scott Neely, are also running for the Republican nomination but are seen as longshots.
Hobbs narrowly won her first term in 2022 against Republican Kari Lake, Trump’s current pick for U.S. ambassador to Jamaica.
Hobbs has gained attention in the state for the hundreds of pieces of legislation she’s vetoed as governor, including the Republican-controlled state legislature’s priorities on issues like diversity, equity and inclusion practices, and election conspiracy-inspired initiatives.
But the Arizona governor argues she has a record to run on, including signing an $18.3 billion state budget into law last month, which features a $1.4 billion tax cut .
A member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, Biggs has consolidated most of his party around his candidacy, including endorsements from the late conservative activist Charlie Kirk and his wife Erika Kirk. Biggs has campaigned on issues like waste and fraud, and eliminating the state income tax. However, Democrats are attacking him over his efforts to contest the 2020 election results.
Arizona will test Trump’s endorsements on Tuesday after he weighed in on several candidates running for statewide and federal office.
In addition to endorsing Biggs for governor, Trump has backed former NFL kicker Jay Feely, who’s running for Schweikert’s seat in the 1st Congressional District. For Biggs’s seat in the 5th Congressional District, the president has picked Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb.
Feely, who previously ran for the 5th Congressional District before switching to the 1st, is vying for the GOP nod against tech CEO John Trobough and former state Rep. Joseph Chaplik.
Lamb, meanwhile, is running against home construction businessman Daniel Keenan. Keenan has sought to make allegations of Lamb’s past sexual impropriety — as reported by The Arizona Republic — an issue on the campaign trail. However, Lamb’s campaign has denied any wrongdoing.
The election in the 1st Congressional District will be crucial in determining which party holds the majority in November. Whoever wins the Republican primary in the 5th Congressional District, however, is likely to win the general given the district’s red-leaning politics.
Schweikert’s seat is not the only battleground district Arizona Republicans will seek to defend this fall.
Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) is fighting for reelection in the 6th Congressional District, another swing seat which hugs the state’s southeastern corner.
Former Marine Corps Drill Instructor JoAnna Mendoza is the only Democrat running for the party’s nod, essentially making Tuesday’s primary a formality.
Ciscomani boasts an incumbency advantage and is no stranger to winning tough races as a second-term lawmaker. But the Arizona Republican’s seat is slightly more volatile than Schweikert’s. Trump won Ciscomani’s seat by less than a point in 2024 while he won Schweikert’s seat by about 3 points, according to The Downballot . Cook Political Report rates both seats as toss-ups this cycle.
While Feely, Trobaugh and Chaplik vie for the Republican nomination in Schweikert’s district, four Democrats are also competing for the seat: former broadcast journalist Marlene Galán-Woods, small business owner Rick McCartney, former state Rep. Amish Shah and small businessman Jonathan Treble. Shah unsuccessfully ran against Schweikert in 2024.
The Grand Canyon State became ground zero for conspiracies and election denialism during the 2020 election where Trump falsely claimed he had won the state against former President Biden.
Ever since then, Arizona Republicans have propelled a number of election deniers as their nominees: Lake, who ran and lost for governor in 2022 and lost again during a Senate bid in 2024; Rep. Abe Hamadeh (R-Ariz.), who ran and lost for state attorney general in 2022 but won his House seat in 2024; and former state Rep. Mark Finchem (R), who ran and lost his race for Arizona secretary of state in 2022.
Six years later, election denialism still looms in several statewide races this cycle. Hobbs has already attacked Biggs over the issue, and both Biggs and Schweikert voted to overturn the election results in 2020.
Meanwhile, Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen (R), running for state attorney general, was involved in the upper chamber’s independent Cyber Ninjas audit…
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