Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Rachel Target Mexico as Isaias Hits Gulf
New York Times · LC · trust 54/100
Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Rachel are both expected to make landfall in the coming days. Rachel could also affect Southern California.
Listen · 6:28 min Share full article William B. Davis and John Keefe/The New York Times
Judson Jones is a meteorologist and reporter for The Times.
While Hurricane Isaias rammed into the United States through the Gulf of Mexico, a pair of Pacific systems — Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Rachel — were tracking toward Mexico and the American Southwest. They were bringing with them the threat of rapid intensification, coastal flooding and potential flash flooding, but also potential relief from a brutal Southern California heat wave.
Hurricane Simon has rapidly intensified off the west coast of Mexico and continues to strengthen, threatening the shoreline with dangerous winds, storm surge and heavy rainfall.
Tropical Storm Rachel could make landfall near the U.S.-Mexico border, where tropical storm watches were issued for portions of Southern California and tropical storm warnings in Baja California. The storm is bringing broad cloud cover that may knock down sweltering temperatures in the region and with that comes a moderate risk of flash flooding from San Diego to Las Vegas.
High uncertainty remains for both Pacific paths because of complex atmospheric factors that make pinpointing precise local impacts difficult.
Simon reached hurricane strength on Thursday, accelerating to a Category 4 hurricane late Friday. It has been inching parallel to Mexico’s western coast.
Computer models that forecasters use to help them understand a storm’s movements have generally agreed that it will eventually turn northeast toward the shore, but a shift of just a few miles could alter the timing of landfall from as early as Saturday night to as late as early next week.
Regardless of the exact point of landfall, Simon will remain close enough to the coast as an extremely intense storm to deliver damaging winds, storm surge and heavy precipitation. The longer the system stays over open ocean water, the longer it will sustain its strength against the coast before weakening as it moves inland.
Simon is the latest in a notable stretch of rapidly intensifying Pacific storms this year, fueled largely by El Niño. Forecasters believed the storm would peak in intensity at a Category 4 but warned it was small enough that it could grow even stronger. If Simon reaches Category 5 intensity, it will be the first time that four Category 5 hurricanes have formed in the Central and Eastern Pacific in a single season — joining Genevieve, Lowell and Polo.
William B. Davis and John Keefe/The New York Times
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