El-Sayed vs. Stevens: How the Michigan Primary Could Reshape Democrats
Newsweek · C · trust 65/100
0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. Michigan Democrats head to the polls Tuesday in what has become one of the party's most closely watched primaries of the year, not simply because it will decide who succeeds retiring Senator Gary Peters, but because many Democrats see it as a referendum on the party's future.
Former public health official Abdul El-Sayed and Representative Haley Stevens are competing for the Democratic nomination in a race that has grown into a national proxy battle over ideology, campaign spending, and influence within the party. Stevens has emerged as the establishment favorite, backed by Governor Gretchen Whitmer and supported by tens of millions of dollars in outside spending from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee's affiliated super PAC.
El-Sayed, meanwhile, has rallied the progressive wing of the party, earning endorsements from Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez while arguing that grassroots organizing can overcome institutional power.
The outcome could reverberate far beyond Michigan. If El-Sayed wins both the primary and the general election against Republican Mike Rogers, progressives will point to the victory as evidence that their message can prevail in one of the country's most competitive battleground states. If he secures the nomination but loses in November, moderates are likely to argue the opposite—that progressive candidates remain a liability in swing-state elections.
Stevens faces the same test in reverse, with supporters arguing she represents Democrats' strongest chance of keeping the seat in party hands.
Much of the national attention surrounding the race has centered on the unprecedented level of outside spending.
United Democracy Project, AIPAC's affiliated super PAC, has poured roughly $30 million into supporting Stevens and opposing El-Sayed, according to the Associated Press, making it the organization's largest investment in a single race to date.
For progressives, the spending has transformed Michigan into a broader fight over whether outside money can determine Democratic primaries.
Joseph Geevarghese, executive director of Our Revolution, the organization that grew out of Sanders' 2016 presidential campaign, said a Stevens defeat would send a message well beyond the state's borders.
"This election is ultimately a test of whether unlimited outside spending can substitute for genuine grassroots organizing," Geevarghese told Newsweek . "Regardless of where the money comes from, voters are demonstrating that there are limits to what money alone can buy."
He argued the contest is ultimately about more than AIPAC itself, saying Democratic voters are responding to candidates focused on affordability, housing and health care.
"We've been outspent," Geevarghese said. "We have not been out-organized."
Stevens' campaign rejects the notion that outside spending explains her position in the race. Campaign spokeswoman Joetta Appiah told Newsweek that polling has consistently shown Stevens as the strongest Democrat to face Rogers and argued Republicans privately would prefer to run against El-Sayed instead.
Democratic strategist Doug Gordon said an El-Sayed victory would nevertheless be interpreted as a setback for AIPAC regardless of what happens in November.
"There is no question that an El-Sayed victory would be a huge defeat for AIPAC and another sign of how toxic their brand has become within Democratic politics," Gordon told Newsweek .
He also noted Michigan's unusually late primary calendar leaves the eventual nominee with fewer than 100 days to unify Democrats before the general election against Rogers—a challenge for either campaign.
Jim Kessler, Third Way's executive vice president for policy, said the AIPAC spending fight obscures a demographic reality specific to the state. Michigan has a higher percentage of Arab American residents than any other state in the country, he said, while its Jewish population is less than half the size of its Arab American population.
"Israel will continue to be a dividing line in Democratic politics," Kessler told Newsweek . "That will be the case no matter who wins next Tuesday."
Michigan's Democratic establishment has largely lined up behind Stevens. Whitmer endorsed her last week, calling the congresswoman someone who has "what it takes to win." The endorsement also revived memories of Whitmer's decisive victory over El-Sayed in the party's 2018 gubernatorial primary.
El-Sayed's campaign dismissed the move as further evidence that the "corporate establishment has closed ranks," arguing voters—not party leaders—will ultimately decide the nominee.
Whether either campaign can build a winning coalition may ultimately depend on Black voters, who make up roughly one-fifth of Michigan's Democratic primary electorate.
Historically, Black voters have tended to support more moderate candidates in high-profile Democratic primaries, including former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton over Sanders in Michigan in 2016. Recent polling suggests Stevens continues to hold an advantage among Black voters overall, particularly those over 55, while El-Sayed has found stronger support among younger and college-educated voters across racial lines.
Both campaigns have spent the closing weeks focused heavily on that constituency.
Stevens has made repeated visits to Detroit and Flint. El-Sayed has campaigned in Pontiac while visiting Black churches and community events across southeast Michigan.
Still, El-Sayed continues to face questions over his prominent role in the 2024 "uncommitted" movement, which encouraged Democrats to withhold presidential primary votes in protest of the Biden administration's handling of the war in Gaza.
More than 100,000 Michigan Democrats ultimately cast uncommitted ballots that year, and CNN interviews…
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