German Far-Right AfD Chances of Winning Next State Elections
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0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. Flush with its success in Saxony-Anhalt, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is in a strong position heading into two other state elections later this month, according to polls and prediction markets.
On Sunday, the party got 44 percent of the vote in the state in the country’s east, well clear of the 17 percent won by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the party of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
The AfD now has a strong chance of further success in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, where voters go to the polls for local elections on September 20.
Polling has put the AfD ahead in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, and prediction markets have put its chances of being the biggest party there at over 80 percent, although the race is a lot tighter in Berlin.
“The AfD realized the best score of any party in any German state election during the past ten years,” Louis Perron, Swiss-based political scientist and consultant, told Newsweek . “That is real momentum.”
In German state politics, the biggest party usually gets a chance to form a governing coalition, which it would then normally lead with the state prime minister. But other major parties refuse to cooperate with the AfD to keep them from power in what is known as a "firewall."
However, in Saxony-Anhalt, the far-left BSW (Bündnis Sarah Wagenknecht), which got 5 percent of Sunday's vote, has expressed interest in becoming the kingmaker this time round. This raises the prospect of AfD candidate for governor, Ulrich Siegmund, becoming the first far-right head of a state government in Germany since WW2.
As the horse trading continues, the AfD has its eyes on two other states where ballots take place on September 20.
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a coastal state in the north-east of Germany, the AfD is ahead of its opponents according to recent surveys. The state’s chamber has 71 seats with 36 needed for a majority.
“The situation in Mecklenburg—Western Pomerania is quite different from Saxony-Anhalt," said Perron. “Germany is a deeply divided country. Both sides think that they have to save the country from the other one so the other parties will—and already are—using the result in Saxony—Anhalt to mobilize their supporters to stop the AfD."
The AfD has Leif-Erik Holm as candidate for minister-president, while Enrico Schult, the state’s party co-chair, heads the state list, the two being co-chairs of the state party. Manuela Schwesig stands for the SPD, Daniel Peters for the CDU, Simone Oldenburg for the Left and Claudia Müller for the Greens.
The election data platform PolitPro, found that polling averages show 35 percent of respondents backed AfD, as of September 6. Next is the SPD with 30 percent, Die Linke with 11 percent, the CDU with 9 percent, Grüne with 5 percent and BSW with 4 percent. Other parties achieved 5.1 percent of the votes.
PolitPro said the polling suggested that the governing alliance of SPD and Die Linke would take just 45.1 percent of the seats –which is not enough for a majority of its own.
Meanwhile, the polling firm Insa found that an average of its last five surveys put the AfD at a slightly lower 30 percent, while the SPD was at 23.2 percent and the CDU was at 15.8 percent.
The parties BSW on 10 percent and Linke were at 10 percent and 9 percent, respectively, although its most recent poll was taken between June 11 and June 18.
As of Monday, prediction market Polymarket put the AfD’s chances of being the biggest party at 82 percent, and the SPD at 19 percent. It also gave a 50 percent probability of there being a 35 to 38 vote share for the party. Another predictor, Kalshi, put AfD’s chances of being the biggest party at 79.4 percent and 23 percent, respectively.
Voters in Berlin also go to the polls on September 20. As both a city and one of Germany's 16 federal states, the chamber chosen runs the municipality and sends the capital's voice to the state government, the Bundesrat.
There are at least 130 seats up for grabs, with 66 needed for a majority, but overhang and leveling seats can push it higher, with the 2023 parliament coming out at 159.
Polling over summer has shown a fragmented field in which the CDU is narrowly ahead and four parties close behind and no obvious two-party coalition.
As of September 6, PolitPro’s amalgamation of polling showed Die Linke at 19.8 percent, followed by CDU with 19.6 percent, AfD with 17.9 percent. Next was Grüne with 16.1 percent, SPD with 12.9 percent, and BSW with 3.6 percent.
According to Polymarket, as of Monday, Die Linke has a 45 percent chance of winning, followed by the CDU on 32 percent and the AfD on 17 percent.
Steffen Krach leads the SPD, Bettina Jarasch and Werner Graf the Greens, Elif Eralp the Left, and Kristin Brinker the AfD candidate.
Perron, author of Beat the Incumbent: Proven Strategies and Tactics to Win Elections , said that in Berlin, the result of the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt “might help the left as they mobilize against the AfD.”
“As for Chancellor Merz I think that not much will happen in the open until the elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg—Western Pomerania are over but behind the scenes, I'm sure that there are emergency talks going on.”
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Matthew Cannon and Gray R. Thomas
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